Australian mineral and energy exports to hit record levels in next 12 months

The Australian Government expects its mining and energy export revenues to surge by 3% to a record A$419 billion in the year to June 2023, while coal and gas prices remain strong in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Western sanctions on Russian energy products have pushed global prices for LNG and coal – Australia’s second and third largest exports – to all-time highs this year. Fossil fuel prices will remain at similar levels in the 2023 financial year, according to the Australian government.

“The outlook is for the prices of energy commodities to remain strong for longer than previously forecast, as Western nations look for alternatives to Russian energy supplies,” the Department of Industry said in its resources and energy quarterly report released today.

However, the department noted that higher global interest rates to combat inflation could hurt global economic activity and in turn lower resource and energy export earnings.

The value of Australian LNG exports is forecasted to jump 19% to $84 billion over the next 12 months, while thermal coal exports used in power generation will rise by 15% to $44 billion, based on strong prices and a small rise in volume, with Australian coal considered the main alternative to Russia’s higher coal grades, the government said.

Revenue from metallurgical coal used in steelmaking is forecast to climb 3% to $60 billion, offsetting an expected 12% fall in the value of Australia’s top export earner – iron ore – to $116 billion. The average iron ore price is seen falling to $99 a tonne in 2023 on decreasing global demand.