22 Jul Study suggests peak oil demand could be reached in eight years
New research by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) suggests that peak oil demand could be reached between the years 2025 and 2030.
The US-based global consultancy agency analysed three disruptive scenarios in its study, including the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), a combination of slower economic growth and efficiency gains and the substitution of oil with cheaper natural gas.
While currently EVs account for only 1% of the global fleet of new car sales, if there was a decrease in the cost of EVs, combined with more charging points and faster charge times, EVs could account for 90% of the developed market car fleet by 2040.
This scenario would result in peak oil demand being reached between 2025 and 2030.
BCG also concluded that the world would hit peak oil demand by 2026 if global economic growth remained at 3% a year, during which tougher regulatory standards influenced gains in fuel efficiency.
Finally, the study found that if natural gas was available in any major region at prices in line with US prices at the beginning of the shale boom, gas would effectively replace oil as an energy source.
If a major energy consumer like China began making cheap natural gas readily available to consumers, oil demand would peak in 2025.